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ray · 12-02-2003, 09:56 PM

I have been tracking both XMSR and SIRI for nearly 6 months now. The biggest difference between the two companies is the following:

XMSR: over 1 million subscribers
SIRI: 200,000 subscribers

In the end, subscribers will drive the revenue up. Since Sirius has very limited commercials and advertisements, they are not generating the same kind of revenue that traditional radio stations generate. That is why these satellite radio firms must charge a subscription fee.

From a consumer standpoint, I have heard both goods and bads about XMSR and SIRI. Sirius is a few dollars more per month, but less advertisements and i hear the programming is a bit better. XMSR, on the other hand, has better reception and less dropped signals.

If you look at the companies' financials, you will notice the following:

XMSR as of Q3:
Total Cash: 456.63M
Total Debt: 773.4M
Changes in AR: -7.1M
Changes in Liabilities: 40.8M
Change in Cash and Cash Equiv: has declined the past 2 Quarters

SIRI as of Q3:
Total Cash: 479.11M
Total Debt: 259.69M
Changes in AR: 16.9M
Changes in Liabilities: -5.2M
Change in Cash and Cash Equiv: Declined in the past Quarter

There is so much more that one should look at when they're researching the financial viability of the company, but I decided to just pick these out to discuss.

XMSR has 20x the revenue of SIRI, but their overall available Cash is lower than Sirius and their changes in liabilities are obviously greater, most likely from their rapid growth in subscribers. However, it really does bother me that their available Cash is so low. They have 1 million subscribers, yet XMSR's account receivables declined by 7.1 million last quarter, while Sirius' change in AR increased by nearly 17 million.

I like to look at historical trends and I usually spend more than 3 months researching a stock before I invest. With XMSR I could have jumped on when it was trading at $10, but the technology was too new and I was skeptical as to the viability of a subscription radio service. XMSR's growth has been absolutely incredible this year, but I think their bubble will burst when their debt and expenses overwhelm their profit. Revenue is one thing, but the bottom line is the most important.

Many analysts are predicting that both XMSR and Sirius will run out of cash in the next year or two, and with a subscription base of 1 million subscribers, XMSR would actually get hurt more than Sirius.

If I had to pick one of these companies to invest in, I would actually pick Sirius because their overall financial package seems healthier, despite the lackluster subscriber levels. However, I think that you may be able to find some better investments at this time. This industry is definitely one to monitor, but their future is just too volatile for my taste.

12-02-2003, 09:56 PM	#2
ray captain awesome Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 7,054	I have been tracking both XMSR and SIRI for nearly 6 months now. The biggest difference between the two companies is the following: XMSR: over 1 million subscribers SIRI: 200,000 subscribers In the end, subscribers will drive the revenue up. Since Sirius has very limited commercials and advertisements, they are not generating the same kind of revenue that traditional radio stations generate. That is why these satellite radio firms must charge a subscription fee. From a consumer standpoint, I have heard both goods and bads about XMSR and SIRI. Sirius is a few dollars more per month, but less advertisements and i hear the programming is a bit better. XMSR, on the other hand, has better reception and less dropped signals. If you look at the companies' financials, you will notice the following: XMSR as of Q3: Total Cash: 456.63M Total Debt: 773.4M Changes in AR: -7.1M Changes in Liabilities: 40.8M Change in Cash and Cash Equiv: has declined the past 2 Quarters SIRI as of Q3: Total Cash: 479.11M Total Debt: 259.69M Changes in AR: 16.9M Changes in Liabilities: -5.2M Change in Cash and Cash Equiv: Declined in the past Quarter There is so much more that one should look at when they're researching the financial viability of the company, but I decided to just pick these out to discuss. XMSR has 20x the revenue of SIRI, but their overall available Cash is lower than Sirius and their changes in liabilities are obviously greater, most likely from their rapid growth in subscribers. However, it really does bother me that their available Cash is so low. They have 1 million subscribers, yet XMSR's account receivables declined by 7.1 million last quarter, while Sirius' change in AR increased by nearly 17 million. I like to look at historical trends and I usually spend more than 3 months researching a stock before I invest. With XMSR I could have jumped on when it was trading at $10, but the technology was too new and I was skeptical as to the viability of a subscription radio service. XMSR's growth has been absolutely incredible this year, but I think their bubble will burst when their debt and expenses overwhelm their profit. Revenue is one thing, but the bottom line is the most important. Many analysts are predicting that both XMSR and Sirius will run out of cash in the next year or two, and with a subscription base of 1 million subscribers, XMSR would actually get hurt more than Sirius. If I had to pick one of these companies to invest in, I would actually pick Sirius because their overall financial package seems healthier, despite the lackluster subscriber levels. However, I think that you may be able to find some better investments at this time. This industry is definitely one to monitor, but their future is just too volatile for my taste.