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Old 04-18-2004, 12:07 AM   #6
LegendKiller
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Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Northern VA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnymk
If you can find an investment which will give me 8% per year, please let me know.



Thats about what I was thinking, especially after taxes, capital gains, or even taxes on interest payments cuts your gain quite a bit.


That 8% is a risky investment. A AAA bond, only yields ~4.2% in the past week, BBB+ structure is ~5%, any lower than that and you are playing a little loose. Government bonds are even less.

Houses VERY rarely lose value and are thus a near risk-free investment. Furthermore, they are counter-cyclical. Almost all times during a recession the housing market has seen a boom, which slows in accelerated periods. This double nature, when combined with equity often returns the best value.


If you really want to perform a good comparison, you will need to compare a low-risk investment to a house. I would say, perhaps, an 5% annual return, before taxes. I would also factor in reinvestment risk (houses dont need to have cash flows invested at like-rate), and PV of payments.

WHen looking at a house, you need to figure in PV of future payments, instead of just looking at straight payments. Figure in taxes and any type of advantages to owning a house (you can take out low-interest equity lines which gives you more free cash to invest). I would also account for the fact that in many areas your investment will return a much larger amount than you expect.

For example, my fiance's parents purchased a house in Naples FL in a gated community when it first started for approx 250k, a cheaper house by their standards (father didn't want all that much capital tied up due to other investment opportunities). They are now selling that house for ~550, in a bit over 5 years. That is a 14.87% annual return, with which he was able to draw a line of credit to further leverage the investment and use to gain additional returns. Lastly, he was able to deduct several items (including I pmts) from his taxes. All of this could be taken into account, a rough estimation would lead to ~19% annual return.

I know several people here in Orlando that have purchased condo's for $120 to turn around and sell them for 180 6 months later. You can't beat a 100% annual return.


LK
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