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View Full Version : Low Gas Prices: an Election Year Ploy?



johnnymk
09-26-2006, 03:26 PM
Wow, I wish politicians could wave a magic wand and make gas prices lower, but I don't believe it for a second.

http://www.wsbtv.com/politics/9935397/detail.html?treets=atl&tid=2657805764813&tml=atl_12pm&tmi=atl_12pm_1_11000309262006&ts=H

Many Think Politicians Manipulating Gas Prices

POSTED: 8:22 am EDT September 26, 2006

WASHINGTON -- There is no mystery or manipulation behind the recent fall in gasoline prices, analysts say. Try telling that to many U.S. motorists.


Almost half of all Americans believe the November elections have more influence than market forces. For them, the plunge at the pump is about politics, not economics.

Retired farmer Jim Mohr of Lexington, Ill., rattled off a tankful of reasons why pump prices may be falling, including the end of the summer travel season and the fact that no major hurricanes have disrupted Gulf of Mexico output.

"But I think the big important reason is Republicans want to get elected," Mohr, 66, said while filling up for $2.17 a gallon. "They think getting the prices down is going to help get some more incumbents re-elected."

According to a new Gallup poll, 42 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that the Bush administration "deliberately manipulated the price of gasoline so that it would decrease before this fall's elections." Fifty-three percent of those surveyed did not believe in this conspiracy theory, while 5 percent said they had no opinion.

Almost two-thirds of those who suspect President Bush intervened to bring down energy prices before Election Day are registered Democrats, according to Gallup.

White House spokesman Tony Snow addressed the issue Monday, telling reporters that "the one thing I have been amused by is the attempt by some people to say that the president has been rigging gas prices, which would give him the kind of magisterial clout unknown to any other human being."

"It also raises the question, if we're dropping gas prices now, why on earth did we raise them to $3.50 before?" Snow said.

The excitement -- and suspicion -- among U.S. motorists follows a post-summer decline in gasoline prices that even veteran analysts and gas station owners concede has been steeper than usual.

The retail price of gasoline has plunged by 50 cents, or 17 percent, over the past month to average $2.38 a gallon nationwide, according to Energy Department statistics. That is 42.5 cents lower than a year ago, when the energy industry was still reeling from the aftermath of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which damaged petroleum platforms, pipelines and refineries across the Gulf Coast.

Industry officials said the competition among gas station owners to sell the cheapest fuel on the block is fierce.

"They want to gain market share," said John Eichberger, director of motor fuels at the National Association of Convenience Stores.

Jay Ricker, president of Ricker Oil Co. in Anderson, Ind., which owns about 30 gas stations and supplies fuel to 30 more, said he's thrilled to see pump prices sinking as fast as they are.

With prices falling, more customers are buying mid-grade and premium gasoline, Ricker said, and they're spending more cash inside his convenience stores, where profit margins are higher.

"I'd much rather sell them a donut or a fountain drink," said Ricker, whose stations are selling regular unleaded for a few pennies above $2.

Fimat USA oil analyst Antoine Halff said there is no doubt that "the downturn in prices is welcome news from an electoral standpoint for the ruling party." But he scoffed at the notion that the U.S. president had the power to muscle around a global market.

The plunge in prices, Halff said, is the result of growing domestic inventories of fuel, slowing economic growth and toned-down rhetoric between Iran and the United States, which has been critical of Tehran's uranium enrichment program.

The selloff has been magnified, Halff said, by the recent retreat from the market by many speculative investors who got burned by the late-summer volatility. Just last week, a prominent hedge fund told investors that it lost some $6 billion due to bad bets on natural gas prices.

That said, "the sky is not falling," said Halff, who believes oil prices will likely head higher again this winter and average more than $65 a barrel throughout 2007.

At the start of summer, oil analysts were worried about rising demand, the threat of hurricanes and the nuclear standoff between the West and Iran, OPEC's second-largest producer. As a result, crude-oil futures soared to more than $78 a barrel in mid-July.

But by summer's end, these fears had largely dissipated. On Monday, November crude futures settled at $61.45 a barrel.

"We have lots of gasoline supply," said Joanne Shore, an Energy Department analyst. Data maintaned by her agency show U.S. inventories of gasoline at 207.6 million barrels, 6 percent more than last year and slightly above the five-year average for this time of year.

Asked if it was possible that oil companies would reduce their prices in order to help Republicans, Shore responded: "What company in their right mind would step forward to kill their profit?"

At a suburban Miami Mobil station, where regular was selling for $2.66 a gallon, no one was buying in to the conspiracy theory.

"The decrease of gas prices is simply due to a seasonal adjustment of price," said Javier Gudayal, a 48-year-old civil attorney. "And that the Bush administration does not have the power to manipulate."

But in Los Angeles, which has some of the highest gasoline prices in the country, motorists wouldn't rule out the possibility of a government eager to sway the electorate.

Twenty-eight-year-old attorney Amnon Siegel sensed more than serendipity at work.

"I'm sure there's some sort of string-pulling going on," Siegel said, referring to the government.

Maarchk
09-26-2006, 03:59 PM
yes...

Oh you wanted more than a one word answer.
Heck yes...
hehe it is an interesting cycle and yet i think that the government's push against iran and push against other countries helped raise prices. Then suddenly they back off and oil prices fall do to the lack of battling and perceived instability. Thus we suddenly have cheaper oil prices. That may not have been the intention of the government but it had the same effect and people feel that the government controls a lot. I dont know if i believe it but since i am not a fan of bush and his ways i'll say its the bad governments fault.

Markel
09-26-2006, 04:01 PM
So, the govenment has control over OPEC and all the traders who determine the futures prices? :rolleyes:

Maarchk
09-26-2006, 04:12 PM
So, the govenment has control over OPEC and all the traders who determine the futures prices? :rolleyes:

yes. well half way. I dont think they affected opec as much as they scared traders and future makers by saying that they would not open up the oil reserve and now they are saying they would open it up to stop disruptions.
I think they scared oil traders when they threatened to sacntion iran which would have resulted in iran cutting off oil to us. I think they did a lot of barn storming and it helped scare oil prices up. but like i said, i dont know if it was intentional or not but i think it had the effect of raising and now lowering prices. I flip through yahoo news among other pages and i see little to no knews about iran. i think that helps ease the mind of the country and in turn the oil speculators.

I know people like to dimiss the government talk as conspiracy theories, but if oil prices dont just go up and down on their own, i'd love to hear some other ideas on what has affected the greatest prices jumps without a war in many many years.

DarkFury
09-26-2006, 06:38 PM
I'd go along with the "election year theory" as well.

Mighty odd it happens just before November huh? :hmm:

gwilks98
09-26-2006, 08:20 PM
Well, they did predict the hurricanes would be light this year. If I recall, it was the hurricanes that drove the fear that drove the prices through the roof last year.

Yossarian
09-26-2006, 08:38 PM
prices were higher this summer than they were last year

JLemonjello
09-27-2006, 10:10 AM
I think people would be surprised to see just how far reaching some politicians connections go. Esp in the current GOP administration and gubernatorial cabinets in the Southern part of the country they have many friends in deep places including OPEC and everyone involved in the handling of oil. And, as everyone knows in politics, favors go back and forth on a daily basis. It isn't much for OPEC to reduce their insane profits for a few months so that their friends can be elected (or re-elected) to positions of power and extend them favors, contracts, or whatever it may be if only some sway in foreign relations.

Bottom line, lots goes on that people don't know about or don't want to admit. We live in a world controlled by manipulating your power over others.

MikeD
09-27-2006, 11:01 AM
the government's push against iran and push against other countries helped raise prices. Then suddenly they back off

When did we "back off" Iran? I don't recall anything drastic occuring along those lines.


Well, they did predict the hurricanes would be light this year.

They predicted hurricanes would be lighter than last year, not light in general. Actually, they predicted a heavier than normal year (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm).

I just don't see how the Feds "control" oil prices. Then again, I'm not a conspiracy theoriest either...

Dave_7
09-27-2006, 07:15 PM
Well, they did predict the hurricanes would be light this year.
They probably cooled down the Atlantic... you know, because it was an election year. :winkie:

Dave.

ryan_self
09-28-2006, 01:08 PM
I'd go along with the "election year theory" as well.

Mighty odd it happens just before November huh? :hmm:

I've seen you post way too many intelligent things to believe you really think this.

ryan_self
09-28-2006, 01:09 PM
I think people would be surprised to see just how far reaching some politicians connections go. Esp in the current GOP administration and gubernatorial cabinets in the Southern part of the country they have many friends in deep places including OPEC and everyone involved in the handling of oil. And, as everyone knows in politics, favors go back and forth on a daily basis. It isn't much for OPEC to reduce their insane profits for a few months so that their friends can be elected (or re-elected) to positions of power and extend them favors, contracts, or whatever it may be if only some sway in foreign relations.

Bottom line, lots goes on that people don't know about or don't want to admit. We live in a world controlled by manipulating your power over others.

You, on the other hand, I cannot speak for. It's good to throw out a lot of vague conspiracy theories, while also demonstrating that you have not the slightest idea how oil prices are set.

JLemonjello
09-29-2006, 08:30 AM
I refuse to get into anything more than this but... my wife is an Economist/Consultant at one of the largest Economic firms on the Eastern Seaboard and she has been tracking middle east currency flow for her company (and in some instances the CIA) for almost a decade, including while she was in school. This information comes from her, not myself.
I don't think we're throwing around "conspiracy theories" at least in our case, we are simply stating that no matter what the company/corporation/outlet or anything if you go straight to the top you always get to an elite circle of people that operate above normal practice. And, in some cases, it would be possible for them to put their influence in place to get favors in return as was seen with all the oil pipeline disputes several decades ago. I don't think we are directly saying prices are being fixed for political reasons, but I think its safe to say that it is possible to keep them from going up further or keeping them more stagnant for a month or so just so certain allies can be cast in a favorable light.

And, referring to the first sentence of the post, "Wow, I wish politicians could wave a magic wand and make gas prices lower, but I don't believe it for a second."
--Don't believe it, because they can't. Politicians near the top (and with relations, esp thru business, with the oil providing nations) can push for a levelling off for a short period of time, most people in the financial realm are predicting. However, it will come with big-time political promises which may be so big that another levelling (or "fixing" for theorists) may not happen again but its widely believed to be happening this election.

(And like I said, I refuse to get into this any further, you will NOT see another post from me on this issue as I consider it closed--> you know where I am coming from, take it as you want.)

And, most importantly, have a good day!

ShawnLee
09-29-2006, 11:03 AM
This has to be the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Especially because all the paranoid conspiracy theory explanations still leave the biggest "duh" question unanswered. Why, if they could control this, would they let if get that high to begin with?

Maarchk
09-29-2006, 03:51 PM
This has to be the stupidest thing I've ever heard. Especially because all the paranoid conspiracy theory explanations still leave the biggest "duh" question unanswered. Why, if they could control this, would they let if get that high to begin with?

Because they work for the oil companies and oil companies AMAZINGLY had the best profit of their existence during the quarters where oil prices were the highest... :shrug:

If my buddy ran the diamond store and i could raise prices for him to make lots of money and then drop prices so people would reelect me as king of Diamondville, would that not be the best approach for a long term partnership of happiness...

Maarchk
10-09-2006, 01:40 PM
I know this thread is dead... Found this article and thought i would share.. I know it doesn't mean i'm right but it does make an interesting case.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig7/stojan1.html

InfiniteNothing
10-09-2006, 02:01 PM
I wouldn't put it past the oil companies to try and change prices so their politicians look a bit better.

Houdini
10-09-2006, 07:37 PM
I dont know if i believe it but since i am not a fan of bush and his ways i'll say its the bad governments fault.

Not exactly a good way to prove your point. Not liking a President doesn't change any facts. :shrug:

Houdini
10-09-2006, 07:40 PM
but if oil prices dont just go up and down on their own, i'd love to hear some other ideas ...

Sure they do. So does everything else. Supply/demand, stability, financial betting on futures, etc. OPEC has been pretty loose, and some legislation has been around recently to allow more offshore drilling and allow some states to take higher commissions if their shores are used. This has brought it to people's attention. It's also approaching winter, and summer vacations aren't gobbling up gas anymore. So there is likely less demand.

Jane83
10-09-2006, 11:01 PM
im not asking questions. im enjoying it and filling up since i got my new car, im filling up with premium.

Houdini
10-09-2006, 11:11 PM
im not asking questions. im enjoying it and filling up since i got my new car, im filling up with premium.

Amen. My car only drinks primo. If I put in lesser grades, my timing changes to compensate, I lose power, and my gas mileage sucks. Premium is all I can use.

Maarchk
10-10-2006, 09:46 AM
Not exactly a good way to prove your point. Not liking a President doesn't change any facts. :shrug:

Yeah it does.. It makes him responsible for everything bad...

Just like how people who love the president say its not his fault we are at war, its not his fault that the economy is tanking. Its not his fault for 9/11.
/sarcasm
You see people how you want to and you blame them because you can even when its not true. I dont blame him for everything, but i do for a couple things.

He has the ability to change a lot of things, and yet in reality, he has probably done very little to affect anything. My dislike for him stems directly from his approach to iraq and the what i feel is senseless loss of american and many other countries peoples lives.

he probably has little effect on the economy. and he has little affect on oil prices i would say, but i think he has tried his hardest to affect it lately.. I thought he talked for years about not touching the reserves and then he reversed his stance on that. he also was pushing on iran and other oil exporting countries until primaries came around and now we suddenly aren't too concerned with iran's nuclear programs.

This article is kind of shady because it givse the impression that favors were traded to get one person a nice job and in exchange oil futures were released to help drop the price. Perhaps its all lies, perhaps its biased, but i can't think of a logical reason why any good investor or investment company would suddenly sell off their futures when oil has been held to some of its highest points in history.

Houdini
10-10-2006, 10:18 AM
Ah... I see your point. But to be fair, the economy isn't exactly tanking. It was tanking around '98-'02, but now it's not doing half bad. The market keeps climbing, etc. The major "tanking" of the economy was the result of a market adjustment partially caused by overvalued dot-com stocks. Now things look like they are on the upswing, and have been for the past year or so, which means that thankfully this past semi-artificial recession has been very short-lived. The Dow keeps hitting records, etc. :shrug:

Then again, a sitting President has very, very little effect on the economy anyway. As a rule, economic trends and changes just take too damn long.

H <---still happy about lower gas prices! I enjoy paying a dollar less/gallon than I was 4 months ago. :)

guiseppewv
10-11-2006, 03:08 AM
Well, they did predict the hurricanes would be light this year. If I recall, it was the hurricanes that drove the fear that drove the prices through the roof last year.

Now I know why I voted for Bush - cuz he can control the weather. :rolleyes:

BTW, gwilks not saying that you believe this just piggy backing your train of thought.

If there would have been a lot of hurricanes, which is what everyone thought there would be, then the price would still be up above $70/bbl and $3+/gal.

Side note - In the UK the price for gas has been around 87 pence per litre which is about $1.60/litre. Since it takes 3.785 litres to equal a gallon you are talking ~$6.06/gal.

Maarchk
10-11-2006, 09:12 AM
I agree we are all in a happy place right now. :) And i am glad that we are. I just wanted to talk about this and see what other people thought.

An interesting aside to the comment about 6 dollars a gallon in the UK. One of my professors was talking about the history of gas prices and how it has almost always been an elastic good. He said that if the price rose to between 4.50-6.00 a gallon that it would reach the point of being inelastic and that basically he expected ww III to not be far off.