NV30: Not This Year. Massively in 2003?

[sbp]

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/story.html?id=1035331876

According to what we have heard from our sources, a lot of graphics cards vendors do not expect to get their hands on the NV30 graphics chip from NVIDIA this year due to several reasons that remain undisclosed. Among the others is a very big Taiwan and China-based company, who is often supplied with the GPUs among the first.

The sources revealed that the company does have plans to offer its clients the NV30-based graphics cards, however, not this year. They did not want to discuss the reasons of delay and there is no information about their rivals’ products powered by the same VPU. Unfortunately, presently there are also no details about the actual graphics cards powered by the on the novelty.

I want to remind you that according to NVIDIA’s Derek Perez, the Santa Clara based graphics chips developer wants to announce the next-generation NV30 architecture on the 18th of November at Comdex Fall (see this news-story). In fact, the GeForce3 was also announced a couple of month before the appearance on the market, so, there is nothing special in the fact that NVIDIA will delay the actual products again.

Of course, in order to keep the word that was given to the investors, the company may sell 500 to 1500 NV30-based graphics cards to enthusiasts after the Comdex Fall and then continue to improve the yield of the wafers so to cut the manufacturing expenses before launching the NV30 massively in January or February.

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No surprise at all. Paper launch anyone?

A whole 1,000 NV30's? Wow. http://www.pcabusers.net/forums/images/smilies/rude.gif

If someone wants the best videocard out now and for the next few months, the Radeon 9700 is it. Heck, ATI is already showing off Radeon 9700's with DDR II (http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/story.html?id=1035325962).
And as soon as the NV30 comes out in mass, ATI will follow that shortly with the R350.

[spigidygak]

woo0o0o what have I been saying. . . go ati go, heheh. Serious side though. . . 1000 cards :disa: wtf is that.

[Ladogaboy]

Hmmmm... and updates on the 9700's power issues though?

[sbp]

Long news article. Here are some snips.

http://news.com.com/2117-1040-963195.html

Nvidia was expected to have its NV30 processor, to be sold as the GeForce 5, on the market by now. But problems stemming from shifting to a new chipmaking process have bumped back the chip by several months. Analysts now expect Nvidia to have a handful of new chips on the market by Christmas, but volume shipments won’t begin until early next year.

"Basically, they missed the cycle," Hans Mosesmann, a Prudential Securities analyst, said of Nvidia. "Really (the NV30) is a fall product that's now been pushed out for all intents and purposes to the spring."

Once NV30 products do appear, they’re likely to be 25 percent to 50 percent faster than the Radeon 9700--not enough of a boost to get people to switch, Mosesmann said. That's partly because many of the immediate advances expected in PC graphics depend on programming instructions built into DirectX 9, the upcoming version of Microsoft's PC graphics library. The Radeon 9700 was built to support those functions.

The Radeon 9700 has given a significant boost to ATI's prospects, however, one that will grow in significance the longer it takes for Nvidia to release a rival to the ATI chip. ATI also began courting more mainstream consumers Thursday with the release of the Radeon 9500, a slightly stripped-down version of the 9700 that will sell for $200 or less, about half the price of 9700 cards.

PC manufacturers reportedly have just received samples of the NV30 chip and may show demonstration PCs--including models running Advanced Micro Devices' latest Athlon processors--at the Comdex trade show, running the week of Nov. 18 in Las Vegas. But retail shipments of PCs running the NV30 are unlikely to materialize until several months into 2003--a traditionally weak time of the year for PC sales. Some PCs, however, from specialty manufacturers such as Alienware, will contain the chip and AMD's Athlon XP 2800+ this year.

The delays largely stem from Nvidia's decision to design the chip based on advanced, new chipmaking techniques, most notably the 130-nanometer manufacturing process. The measurement refers to the average size of features on the chip. Chip foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC), which manufactures Nvidia's chips, has experienced difficulty with the shift from 180- and 150-nanometer manufacturing.

"Whatever you think about ATI, the management made a very shrewd decision," Mosesmann said. "They decided 0.13 micron wasn't going to be there...If they would have gone to 0.13 micron, it would have been a disaster. Nvidia can afford to work out problems like that, but it would have killed ATI."

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Rambling comments section :heh:: As the article points out, ATI is gaining mindshare. And its a good bet marketshare also.

Its quite possible the R350 may come out on .15u. The R400 won't come out until 2nd half 2003.

As time goes on the .13u process will mature and yields will go up.

I don't totally agree with the statement ATI would have been "killed" if it went with .13 micron and couldn't afford to work out the problems with that tech. Yeah, ATI would have been in a bad position but killed? Is Nvidia killed now? Please note a company doesn't have to be market leader and have best thing out to make money. And afaik TSMC shoulders some of the cost in the switch to .13 micron.

[GraingerGuy]

http://www.nvidia.com/content/areyouready/index.html

But are you ready? :D

Personally....I think this is a waste of bandwidth.

[LegendKiller]

I wouldn't totally discount Nvidia yet.


LK

[DREDD]

It's not a matter of what one will be better. Rather, it's a matter of timing. ATi has the lead and as long as they stay there it leaves more time for them to sell more 9700 cards and that means those people will most likely not buy the Nv30 due to monitary reasons. Not only that...ATI will probably be ready to release specs or some form of info on the next 9700 revision that will further hamper Nvidia's plans. Not only that, but late releases make people lose faith in a company.

[sbp]

I concur Dredd.

I don't think people are discounting Nvidia. However, doubts are beginning to creep in about Nvidia and understandably so: Nvidia built its reputation by being able to execute.

Now that ATI has cranked up R300 chipset production, they can cut prices whenever they want to.

Even when the NV30 actually comes out and is fully tested, its of little use when it won't be available for months. If you don't agree, please point out where an AthlonXP 2800+ can be bought.

[LegendKiller]

You have to remember, the NV30 is a HURDLE product. Even if ATI does a refresh in Feb, they wont be shipping in volume until Mar-April, and even then Nvidia will beat them there. I do not think this was a mis-step, I think it was planned. Furthermore, it has been said (and I haven't analyzed it, but I plan to), that Nvidia derives 98% of its revenues from low-end graphics. Not being able to produce a high-end solution means nothing to the core business capabilities of the company.

As I said, I would NOT discount Nvidia yet. They can still pull quite a few tricks out of the bay. They nabbed a TON of IP when they scouped up 3dfx and that is supposedly in with the NV30. It will be VERY interesting to see what has been going on there, who knows, maybe the Nv30 will turn out to be 2x as fast as the 9700...


LK

[sbp]

Yes, it is a huge hurdle-the NV30 is a new architecture plus using a new fab size. This is the most important release for Nvidia in years. This architecture will be the base that will be added onto for the next couple years of Nvidia graphical products.

Ah but don't forget NV30 derivatives will be used for a whole range of products {mobility, workstation, mainstream and low end offerings}. Got filtering down of tech? And while the high end enthusiast share of the market is tiny and doesn't earn much money {if at all}, it does disproportionally influence the market.

And if not having the best performing card out there means nothing, why did Nvidia release new detonators to rain on the Radeon parade and release the GF3 Ti500 {speed binned GF3} to beat the 8500? :hmm:

So the NV30 will go beyond the DirectX9 specifications and Radeon 9700. Question is will it matter? As like other cards in the past, its unlikely that game developers are going to code for different architectures.

In addition to picking up impressive ip, Nvidia apparently has also picked up 3dfx's nasty habit of releasing products late. Yes, the NV30 is late and no, it wasn't planned.

About the the R350: it may not be as fast and feature rich as the NV30, but it likely won't have to be. Its all about price vs. performance. And its known ATI is working on the R400 planned for release 2nd half 2003. That raises an interesting question-whether Nvidia will or can release the NV35 to compete with the R400 versus a higher clocked refresh NV30. If its the NV35, the NV30 wouldn't be out there on the market that long. If its a higher clocked refresh NV30, this would be more in line with Nvidia's evolutionary, incremental approach.

[LegendKiller]

Yes, the NV30 derivatives WILL filter down, but not for MANY years to come. You are forgetting that a MASSIVE amount of computers sold at BBY or CC have TNT's or GF2's in them. Also, remember, a GF4MX is nothing more than a GF2 with a higher clock speed and DDR with a few extra tweaks.

Highest-end card does come down to execution and Nvidia has been previously flawless. HOWEVER, you must remember that being effective is NOT being effiecient. Look at the money and time wasted by ATI due to poor quality control with power regulation and all of the KT400 problems. Nvidia has gotten brow-beaten because of "poor-execution" but I discount that by saying that NOBODY really knows (except for the CEO and engineers) whether the chip is late or whether it has been planned to be this way.

There are rumors, there is damage control, then there are kernels of fact. We have HEARD the CEO saying it was delayed due to implementation of a few features not previously planned. We have HEARD him talking about yield problems. HOWEVER, we have NOT heard him saying it was late TOTALLY because of these issues. I, personally, think it has been totally blown out of proportion by many news sites.

Divorce yourself from this ATIvNvidia BS and look at Nvidia's fundamentals.
1. They maintain VERY strong leadership.
2. They are keeping to their core values, unliked 3dFX's listless and diverging core values (read Banshee, and buying a PCB factory, STB).
3. They are making sure they do not roll out a product that is shoddy (read Intel and P1, ATI and power...etc).
4. They are making sure that their product is SUPERIOR in EVERY way (read, 9700's initial hype and then later somewhat disappointing numbers when compared to hype)

You may say "well, LK, your Pro-Nvidia". No, I am anti-rumor, anti-brand loyalty, and VERY analytical. From the side NOTHING has changed in Nvidia. Furthermore, 98% of their revenue base still exists in the normal market and those products will actually do better the longer the economy stays flat. Finally, Nvidia's financial's are still VERY impressive. Their accounting standards are some of the better I have seen of a tech company, their financial's look pretty good, and their solvency is VERY good. They can pay their debts and are not over-leveraging themselves. Lastly, they still have a decent (not overly large) war-chest.

All I am saying is "wait and see". For all we know the NV30 will blow the crap out of the 9700 and surpass it enough to last for another year without even a refresh. Is this likely? No, but is it possible? Yes.

LK

[sbp]

The derivatives of the NV30 are already planned. There is the NV31-the cut down version of the NV30, plus a mobility solution and more. Nvidia is not going to sit there and only sell NV30 chips next year.

With the amount of older parts out there and a new part based on a new architecture, I think it a good bet there will be issues to be sorted out with the NV30 also.

Indeed it is part of a CEO's job is to spin positive.

Maybe the NV30 is late mainly due to those issues and maybe its not. Maybe the NV30 will blow away the Radeon 9700. It really doesn't matter because the card won't be available in a shiny box for Joe Blow Gamer to buy himself a lovely Xmas gift and then hide the bill from an enraged wife. http://sbp777.homestead.com/files/icon10happy.gif

Geez someone just missed the biggest shopping season of the year, where money is being spent out the yahoo, for their lovely new card. Think they are thrilled about that? Think they are happy about the reality of putting this card out in numbers next year when people won't spend as much? No way.

The reality is ATI and Nvidia are in competition with each other. And when gamers go shopping they want the best videocard for their money at various price levels. ATI and Nvidia want that money.

Nvidia's strengths and financials aren't in dispute. Fact is this card is late and no amount of dancing changes that reality.

Its not a rumor to know the NV30 is late in coming out and won't be available in any number this year. And unless one's name is Anand, Joe Blow gamer won't be able to get this card, let alone touch one this year.

[LegendKiller]

Again, does that really matter? If 2% of your revenue is derived from high-end graphics does it really matter if you only get 1/2 of that? They made 1% of sales have having their short term investments going up so far in the past 2 weeks...



LK



Originally posted by sbp
The derivatives of the NV30 are already planned. There is the NV31-the cut down version of the NV30, plus a mobility solution and more. Nvidia is not going to sit there and only sell NV30 chips next year.

With the amount of older parts out there and a new part based on a new architecture, I think it a good bet there will be issues to be sorted out with the NV30 also.

Indeed it is part of a CEO's job is to spin positive.

Maybe the NV30 is late mainly due to those issues and maybe its not. Maybe the NV30 will blow away the Radeon 9700. It really doesn't matter because the card won't be available in a shiny box for Joe Blow Gamer to buy himself a lovely Xmas gift and then hide the bill from an enraged wife. http://sbp777.homestead.com/files/icon10happy.gif

Geez someone just missed the biggest shopping season of the year, where money is being spent out the yahoo, for their lovely new card. Think they are thrilled about that? Think they are happy about the reality of putting this card out in numbers next year when people won't spend as much? No way.

The reality is ATI and Nvidia are in competition with each other. And when gamers go shopping they want the best videocard for their money at various price levels. ATI and Nvidia want that money.

Nvidia's strengths and financials aren't in dispute. Fact is this card is late and no amount of dancing changes that reality.

Its not a rumor to know the NV30 is late in coming out and won't be available in any number this year. And unless one's name is Anand, Joe Blow gamer won't be able to get this card, let alone touch one this year.