Blackjack Question

[friscokydd]

So I'm in Vegas trying out my newly developed card counting skills, when I have a revalation. I've read plenty of books on basic blackjack strategy and different types of card counts for multiple decks. All these techniques combined would give you a *slight* statistical edge over the house, but they're super hard to do when you're at the tables. But instead, what if I just mirror the way the dealer plays? I mean, I'd hit up to 17 and hit on a soft 17. Would I have the same odds as the dealer? I know people at the table would be super p*ssed at me for playing all weird. But not thinking of that, would I be equal with the dealer? What am I missing here? Does the dealer going last give him some sort of advantage? :confused:

By the way, I was up $50 when I actually was able to count (1-2 count and K-O count) with basic strategy, but I lost $350 when I couldn't count (too many people at the table getting mad at me for being so slow at 3rd base). Thanks fellow gamblers!

[Cantacuzene]

You don;t have the same odds as the dealer. You bust first. Even if teh dealer busts if you bust you still lose. That gives the dealer a rather large statistical advantage. If you play exactly like the deal you will never beat the house because of that.

[djradam]

i don't think the people at the table would be pissed for "playing wierd", just if you were taking forever. 350 is a lot, i'd say brush up on your skills :)

[Bires]

Originally posted by friscokydd
Does the dealer going last give him some sort of advantage?

Just like Canta said, the dealer going last gives him a huge advantage.

When playing blackjack, the thing to remember, and why blackjack is so profittable for the house (because ppl are egocentric) is the *house's* card is the important card.

2,3,5,6 are the worst up cards for the house to have. If they have those four, don't risk a bust, even if you have 12.

If the house has 8-10 up, you're most likey hosed, so go ahead and risk trying to get 18-21.

[Sesshomaru]

Originally posted by Bires

If the house has 8-10 up, you're most likey hosed, so go ahead and risk trying to get 18-21.

I'm new, but I want a piece of this discussion.

I disagree with this strategy if I get dealt 16 or if I hit and get 16. As a rule I always hold. Some people think you have a 50-50 chance of busting or not by hitting at 16, but it's more than that. You're ok with 1-5, but you bust if you get 6-10, plus J, Q, or K. You bust way more often than not, plus the only cards that will really help you is 3-5. That's frickin bad odds.

If a dealer gets 8-10 up, I don't know what are the odds they'll get a face on the bottom, but I think you give yourself much better odds by staying on 16 always.

And oh, I've been to the casino twice, so I'm an expert :P

[attgig]

there are some people who get pissed at you when you play weird.

it supposedly screws with the deck order. so if you hit when you're not supposed to...they think that the statistics screw up (if you play by the book, it's supposed to average out to losing 2 dollars for every 100 over a long time).

so yes, people do get pissed.

[tweeteresa]

yep. i do. bcuz usually when soemone hits, they take a high card...which SHOULD be the dealers card so he can bust. blackjack isn't about getting as close to 21 as possible. it's about beating the dealer's hand. who cares if you have 12? if they dealer is showing a 6, he has to hit. a bust card shows up more likely than none.

[dbax791]

I'm going again next month.

LOL 2 yr old post -

http://www.gotapex.com/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=41587

[ray]

The way I see gambling is simple. I play for myself and nobody else. I can do as I please with my money. If my 'gut instinct' tells me to hit if I have 12 and the dealer is showing 6, I will hit. Don't like it, find another table :P

[Cheesypuff]

according to stats...a dealer will bust 27% of the time when you force the dealer to do so.

[Mike_N_Ike]

Yeah mirroring the dealer is going to get you in trouble because it will take away one of your biggest advantages as a player. The house advantage doesn't come from the hit/stand decisions that they make, but mainly from the fact that if you both bust, the house wins.

Edit:
Sorry Cantacuzene, I didn't realize you had posted almost the exact same thing. I agree :)

[Mike_N_Ike]

Getting on other players' cases for making poor moves in blackjack on the basis that it causes your cards to be any different is just silly superstition. I've run out of patience for those players who get all touchy about that sort of thing. When you draw a card from a shuffled deck, you're getting a random card. Whether or not the guy before you took 3 or 4 cards, you're getting a random card from the deck. It makes no difference. If you honestly believe that the blackjack gods have set the deck up so that you have certain cards heading your way, I think you ought to trust them to account for the cards that the other players at your table are going to take.

About hitting 16 - your odds of winning if you choose to stand on 16, are the same of winning if you choose to stand on 15, 14, 13.....all the way down to 3. The dealer is going to keep hitting until he/she gets a 17 or busts so if you have lower than that, it makes no difference what the specific value of your hand is. Being dealt a 16 is lousy - you have a small chance of winning no matter what you do. Your small chance of winning is slightly higher if you stand when the dealer shows 2-6 and hit otherwise. A lot of players don't hit 16 when they should, for instance when the dealer is showing a 7, because they'd rather lose to the dealer than cause themselves to bust. In the long run, that'll cost you money - but then again, your average blackjack player will never play enough for those long run statistics to really apply.

[Johnnymac]

Originally posted by ray
The way I see gambling is simple. I play for myself and nobody else. I can do as I please with my money. If my 'gut instinct' tells me to hit if I have 12 and the dealer is showing 6, I will hit. Don't like it, find another table :P

That's how I play. I was in vegas superbowl weekend and sat at more than one table where someone wanted to tell me how to play. I just told the person that if they wanted to give me there money than I would play exactly how they told me.

[friscokydd]

Thanks for the insight on why mirroring the dealer won't work. I see how going last gives the house the edge, but weirdly it was never mentioned in the books I've read. BTW, hitting on a hard 16 gives you a 62% chance of a bust in single deck play. Although it seems high, your chance of beating the dealer when his face card is a 7-A is wayyyyy lower. In fact, the best move to make is surrendering (lose half your bet) if you have a hard 16 against a dealer's 9,10, or A. Unless of course it's a pair of 8's, in which case good luck on a split.

And about how much I've lost this past weekend in Vegas, I ended up down $300 total. I'm tracking my wins/losses and I'm hoping my skills will get me back up with the more I read up. Thanks everyone!!

[dbax791]

Originally posted by Mike_N_Ike
Getting on other players' cases for making poor moves in blackjack on the basis that it causes your cards to be any different is just silly superstition.

Nonsense.

Blackjack counting and player odds are mostly based on the ratio of 10s remaining vs 10s played.

If you are playing single-deck, for example, and you notice the deck is rich in 10s (e.g. not many played on the table) you're a happy camper. If you are standing on a 13 with a dealer 6 up, the odds are in your favor.

If the jackass next to you playes incorrectly and hits a 12, there is a decent chance he will pull a 10. If he does, then when the play comes to your turn, he just decreased the ratio of 10s/2-6s in the remaining deck hurting your odds of winning the hand.

[friscokydd]

Originally posted by dbax791


If the jackass next to you playes incorrectly and hits a 12, there is a decent chance he will pull a 10. If he does, then when the play comes to your turn, he just decreased the ratio of 10s/2-6s in the remaining deck hurting your odds of winning the hand.

That is partly true. Basic strategy says that you should stay on a 12 if the dealer is showing a 6. If the person to your left hits when the count is positive, he'd most likely be taking away a high card that could've been dealt to the dealer. BUT, the problem here is you aren't playing against the other people at the table. You ONLY play against the dealer. That goes above and beyond basic strategy since it's a rule of the game of blackjack. Getting mad at someone else's game play will just throw you off your own game. If you don't like it, sit at 3rd base or leave the table. Showing patience is part of the game, since there's NO rules on telling other people how to play. That's just my 2 cents.

[Mike_N_Ike]

Originally posted by dbax791


Nonsense.

Blackjack counting and player odds are mostly based on the ratio of 10s remaining vs 10s played.

If you are playing single-deck, for example, and you notice the deck is rich in 10s (e.g. not many played on the table) you're a happy camper. If you are standing on a 13 with a dealer 6 up, the odds are in your favor.

If the jackass next to you playes incorrectly and hits a 12, there is a decent chance he will pull a 10. If he does, then when the play comes to your turn, he just decreased the ratio of 10s/2-6s in the remaining deck hurting your odds of winning the hand.

While this the logical and intuitive way that most players view the game, it turns out to be incorrect.

It's not that it is impossible that a player is going to make a move that may give them the card you were looking for and cause you to lose as a result. However, the chance of that happening is precisely the same as the chance that their 'bad play' is going cause you to win instead. Therefore, collectively it makes absolutely no difference.

No matter if the other players at your table play well or poorly, you can always go back and look at what cards came out before it was your turn and blame other people for taking your cards.




This always comes up when somebody draws the bust card that the dealer 'should have gotten.' Take your example of standing on 13 while the dealer is showing a 6 with a high positive count (meaning like you said, that the ratio of 10s to 2-6's left in the deck is high).

Imagine the deck has 30 cards left: 20 of them are tens and 10 of them are low cards. The dealer is going to draw a 10 and bust 2/3 or 66.67% of the time.

If the guy before you hits when he shouldn't (or when he should...it makes no difference) he's going to get a 10 66.67% of the time. That will leave 19 10s and 10 low cards. The dealer now has a slightly lower chance of drawing a 10 - 65.52%.

However, you must consider the possibility that the player draws a low card. This will happen 33.33% of the time and will leave the deck with 20 10s and 9 low cards, meaning the dealer now has a 68.97% chance of getting a 10.

(Chance of event 1)*(Resulting probability) + (Chance of event 2)*(Resulting probability) =
.6667*.6552 + .3333*.6897 = .6667 or 66.67%
Meaning, the chance of the dealer grabbing a 10 is exactly the same whether or not the player draws one card. If you want to test this with the player drawing 2, 3 or any number of cards, you'll come up with the same result.

[Nija]

I just want to say, that when I play I also play against the dealer. I go with my intuition. I've hit on hard 17 and beaten the house more times than not. And I really don't give a flying f*ck what the other people I'm playing with think. Not their money. It's mine, and I'll make a profit it off it, not them. So I let them lose their way, and I'll lose my way.

/me has yet to lose though ;)