At least 173 dead in Madrid train terror attacks

[nickel]

MADRID, Spain (CNN) -- At least 173 people were killed and nearly 600 injured in a series of explosions on Madrid's railway network at the height of morning rush hour, Spain's interior minister says.

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2004/WORLD/europe/03/11/spain.blasts/story.newwreckage.ap.jpg
The most deadly blast happened on a train entering Atocha station.

Spanish officials are blaming the Basque separatist group ETA for the coordinated attack, which comes ahead of Sunday's general election.

European Parliament President Pat Cox called the attack "the worst act of terror in the history of Spain and the worst act of terror in memory in any European Union state."

Spanish Interior Minister Angel Acebes said there were a total of 13 explosions at the Santa Eugenia, El Pozo and Atocha stations. He said there was "no doubt" ETA was responsible.

The most deadly blast happened on a train entering Madrid's main Atocha station, Acebes said.

Survivors described scenes of chaos and panic in the Spanish capital.

http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2004/WORLD/europe/03/11/spain.blasts/story.spain.victim.2.ap.jpg
Survivors used mobile phones to tell relatives they were alive.

"The worst was people screaming for help inside the train and there was nothing we could do," one survivor told CNN+.

People in tears walked away from the city's main Atocha station in droves as rescue workers carried bodies away from the scene.

Many people with bloodied faces sat on curbs, using mobile phones to tell loved ones they were alive. (More eyewitness)

The attack comes ahead of Sunday's general election in which Spain's conservative ruling Popular Party -- which has taken a hard-line stance against ETA -- is currently leading in the polls.

So far, there has been no claim of responsibility.

linked (http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/europe/03/11/spain.blasts/index.html)

[Grubbie]

Damn, good thing my girlfriend wasn't on a trip to madrid today. I remember hearing about some planned attacks when I was out there, not cool.

[bachviet]

Damn this is really sad. :(

I hope that Spain catches the ones behind these attacks.

My prayers are with the victims and their families.

[zenbooty]

Probably the separatist movement in the North. They've been doing this for years and years now.

[cheapie]

look at that guy's eye. holy ****!

[ray]

My friend is stuck in Barcelona now. Apparently Spain's not letting anyone leave...:(

[Nanotech9]

the 10 years i lived there, it was common to hear about some car bombing about once a week. the ETA (pronounced "A-Tuh") has no remorse, and hardly ever gets caught. Every once in a while, there would be a larger bombing like this train incident.

Its so common, that sometimes its hardly even considered "news".

[Jeffbx]

I have to claim ignorance on the Spanish political front... what is ETA's agenda?

[zenbooty]

Originally posted by Jeffbx
I have to claim ignorance on the Spanish political front... what is ETA's agenda? They represent the Basques, an ethnic minority in Spain and France, who live in the Iberian mountains in northeastern Spain and southeastern France. They have wanted to secede from Spain and be their own autonomous region for a long time (over 50, even 75 years, I bet).

http://www.raceandhistory.com/worldhotspots/basque.htm

[ShawnLee]

So, an Al Qaeda claim on the Spanish bombing, and ETA denying involvement (whereas they've claimed it in the past).

[zenbooty]

Originally posted by ShawnLee105
So, an Al Qaeda claim on the Spanish bombing, and ETA denying involvement (whereas they've claimed it in the past). Where'd you see this?

[ShawnLee]

Reuters via FoxNews.

[Butch]

I really hope it wasn't ETA.

My family has roots in the Basque region. There is a lot of sympathy within my family for the plea of separatism, but certainly not for the terrorism of the ETA. Personally, I don't really care about the separatism . . . I don't identify with the Basque at all.

Anyway, every time the ETA attacks, it's disgusting and saddening. They do nothing to advance the cause. Instead, all they do is piss people off and create animosity against the Basque people in general. F*cking ETA.

[verve247]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&ncid=578&e=1&u=/nm/20040311/ts_nm/security_spain_qaeda_dc

[slaus]

Originally posted by ray
My friend is stuck in Barcelona now. Apparently Spain's not letting anyone leave...:(

I saw the news this morning around 7am. I didnt know if I should tell my mom about it because I wasnt sure if Ed was in Barcelona still or in Madrid.

[Apex]

Man, that's horrible. Sad this continues to go on.

[Grubbie]

I talke to my gf some more today who was in cadiz(southern part) and she was telling me about how one train was late arriving at the station. About two minutes late and it was one of the trains that got hit, if it was one time it would of done a lot more damage. She went on about how trains there are never late and it was amazing how one was late and it had explosives on it.

Not sure if it was mentioned in the story, but it looks like the attacks were carried out with backpacks full of dynamite, 5-10kilos worth per bag...

[Merlin]

Spain: ETA Not Alone on Bombing Suspect List

Summary

The Spanish government has been quick to blame ETA for the March 11 train bombings in Madrid, but the glove doesn't quite fit. If it was ETA, it would indicate a shift in leadership and/or operational methodology. It is possible, however, that another group is behind the attacks.

Analysis

Spanish Interior Minister Angel Acebes has blamed the March 11 Madrid train bombings on Basque separatist group ETA. ETA's outlawed political wing, Batasuna, has denied the group was responsible, blaming the "Arab resistance" reacting to Spain's military participation in the Iraq war and occupation. Many aspects of the attack do not fit with ETA's modus operandi, and the attack could be counterproductive to the group's objective of greater Basque autonomy or independence.

Although ETA -- or perhaps an offshoot -- certainly cannot be ruled out as a prime suspect, it is far from clear that Basque separatists staged the attack. In fact, a growing case can be made that militant Islamists could be behind it.

But first for ETA: The Basque separatist group clearly has had its eye on Madrid in recent months. In December 2003, Spanish police foiled an ETA plot to detonate two bombs aboard two trains in the Madrid railway station on Christmas Eve -- a plot eerily similar to the March 11 attack. Two suspected ETA members were arrested, and the bombs were defused before the trains reached the station. In late February 2004, Spanish police intercepted a van driven by an alleged ETA member bound for Madrid, carrying a cargo of more than 1,100 pounds of explosives that authorities said was part of a plan to detonate a bomb in the capital before the March 14 national elections.

These interdictions could have had several results. They could have demonstrated to ETA that the long-running crackdown by the Aznar government resulted in critical operational leaks. ETA might have identified those leaks and plugged them. The group also might have decided to keep a much tighter grip on planning for this operation and change its habit of offering advance warning of attacks, which it might now consider too risky. ETA's nonhierarchical structure -- with a diffuse collection of largely self-sufficient cells -- could have prompted a certain cell to launch the operation without the knowledge of the central leadership to lessen the chance of interdiction.

Second, the interdictions and wider roundup of ETA operatives and leadership over the past several years might have generated a new group of younger, bolder and more radicalized Basque nationalists, a new generation of ETA leadership or a new, more radical cell working apart from the more traditional leadership. More than 400 ETA members are in Spanish prisons, and more than 200 suspected ETA members have been arrested in the past two years. However, ETA has continued to gain new recruits through Batasuna. That could help explain the change of MO toward larger- scale attacks that cause indiscriminate casualties.

ETA cells are not known to carry out attacks independently of orders from above; the group has always been disciplined in this regard. Cells haven't worked freelance in the past, but recent victories by Spanish and French security forces might have forced them to change tactics. Frustration with the interdictions and perceptions among Basque extremists of a wider ETA failure in recent years also could have broken down organizational discipline, leading to splinter groups similar to the IRA and Real IRA in Ireland.

Still, there is something not quite right about the ETA explanation. If it is ETA, the Madrid attacks will fundamentally damage the cause of Basque nationalists/separatists. In fact, the attack could be so counterproductive as to ultimately undermine, weaken and isolate ETA. If the attack can be pinned on the Basques, it will give the current and future Spanish government all the leeway it needs to crack down even more harshly on ETA. Meanwhile, anyone who speaks out on behalf of the Basques or their dream of greater autonomy likely would be labeled a terrorist sympathizer.

The nationalists want greater political autonomy, and Basque leaders have been moving in that direction, absorbing Basques who might support ETA politically into the Basque mainstream. They were pushing among other things for a Basque referendum on whether they should have more political autonomy or full independence. Rather than galvanizing the Basque country around those independence ambitions, the attacks will horrify most Basques and will make the nationalist divisions in the region even worse. This could bleed support away from radical nationalist Basque groups and strengthen the Basque center, which is pushing for full autonomy bordering on -- but not quite reaching -- full independence. This also could cut into the group's local financial support.

Finally, it could undermine any sympathies for Basque ambitions among other mildly separatist regions in Spain, including Catalonia and Galicia.

In its 45-year history, hundreds of ETA attacks have resulted in only about 800 deaths. With the death toll from March 11 up to 186 (with more than 1,000 confirmed injured), that number has jumped by 25 percent in one day. In short, these attacks went much too far to support ETA's goals, undermining a historical pattern designed to keep pressure on Madrid without completely alienating itself from the rest of Spain, or at least the nationalists in the Basque country. This attack will completely undermine that pattern.

There are other suspects. The Islamist Web site Jihadunspun.com, or JUS, reported March 11 that a previously unknown Islamist group calling itself Lions of al-Mufridoon claimed responsibility for blasts. The group is said to consist of Moroccan, Algerian and Tunisian operatives linked to al Qaeda.

We should note that there is a discrepancy in the JUS report: The name used in the body of the text is "Lions of al-Mufridoon," but it was spelled "Lions of al-Muwahidoun" in the headline on the JUS homepage. "Al-Muwahidoun" means "the Unitarians" (a typical Wahhabi/Neo-Salafist term); it is a known group that was blamed for the May 17, 2003, bombings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Stratfor has not confirmed this report and is looking into the discrepancy, and the involvement of Islamists remains speculation.

Still, there is reason to believe Islamists could be behind the attack. A Russian military intelligence source told Stratfor that foreign Islamist fighters caught in Chechnya and interrogated by Russian forces over the past three months have said repeatedly that Islamists of North African origin who have received combat and explosives experience in Chechnya were planning attacks in Europe against Spanish and Italian targets. Among those captured in Chechnya were a Moroccan and two Algerians -- similar to the description of the Lions of al-Mufridoon.

Although Russian intelligence is known for seeing Chechen connections in any number of places, the Morocco-Algeria-Tunisia link makes sense on several levels. Spain's large ethnic Arab population -- which originates from these three countries -- would make it easier for Islamist extremists to operate there. Apart from the United Kingdom, Spain was the staunchest supporter of the war against Iraq, raising its profile among Islamists looking to strike back at the United States and its allies. On Nov. 29, seven Spanish intelligence agents traveling in a convoy near Baghdad were shot and beaten to death, and a Spanish diplomat -- who was also an intelligence officer -- was assassinated Oct. 9 near his residence in the Iraqi capital. Spain also has been mentioned explicitly in the most recent statements by Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri.

There are similarities between the Chechen attacks and the Madrid bombing as well, suggesting a conceivable tactical/training connection. Chechens often target trains, most recently in the Moscow metro bombing Feb. 6. In addition to that attack, there have been several regular and suburban trains bombed in Russia's southern regions.

If trains become a target of choice for Islamists looking to wreak havoc on Europe, it would spell real trouble for a continent that depends on its rail network for travel and commercial transport. The Spanish rail system will be disrupted for weeks as Spain initiates new security procedures. Next door, France also has a dark cloud hanging over its rail system as a shadowy group calling itself AZF claims to have planted underground bombs on French rail lines. Down the road, Europe has the Greek Olympics to worry about: All trains to Athens run through the less-than-secure Balkans.

[Merlin]

......................................................................

Geopolitical Diary: Friday, March 12, 2004

Ten bombs exploded nearly simultaneously in four trains in Madrid on March 11. Nearly 200 people are dead and more than 1,000 wounded. The bombs were reported to contain between 12 and 15 kilos of Titadine dynamite, meaning that between 160 and 200 kilos of dynamite went off simultaneously.

It is still not clear who carried out the bombing. The Spanish government's snap judgment was that it was the Basque separatist group ETA. ETA has pursued an extended terrorism campaign for years, but has never attempted an attack of this magnitude. ETA has survived by operating at a subcritical level. It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which ETA would have attempted this. Not impossible, but very difficult.

That leaves al Qaeda. Some of the operation -- particularly the coordination of multiple devices -- carries the imprint of al Qaeda. Messages began to appear very quickly that claimed it was an al Qaeda attack. The problem with that is simply that al Qaeda tends not to take immediate credit for its actions; it allows the dust to settle and the confusion to take its toll, and then takes credit at some point. That does not exclude al Qaeda from the list of suspects, but it is a bit of an anomaly. On the other hand, it could simply have been a coincidence that some claimed credit on behalf of al Qaeda, if al Qaeda was the perpetrator.

A third alternative is that the attacks were carried out by an Islamist group other than al Qaeda. A group called Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, closely linked to al Qaeda but not identical, sent out a five-page message to the al-Quds newspaper in London, claiming responsibility. The fax threatened the United States, saying, "We announce the good news for the Muslims in the world that the strike of the black wind of death, the expected strike against America, is now at its final stage -- 90 percent ready -- and it is coming soon, by God's will."

It seems likely the Madrid attacks were carried out by Islamist forces, and that the organizational structure is not really relevant -- although the possible emergence of an autonomous Islamist strike force in Europe is far from trivial -- and could be linked to the emergence of the mysterious French group AZF. Simply by process of elimination, it is likely this is the work of an Islamist group.

First, Spain has been a close ally of the United States and sent troops to Iraq, some of whom were killed in an attack there. Second, the Islamists are losing the war in Iraq, and they are either going to fade away or strike back. Since it is unlikely they plan to fade away, the logical action is to strike, and striking at a somewhat softer target that is an ally of the United States makes sense.

Immediately after Sept. 11, when there was intense speculation about al Qaeda's next move, one of the scenarios was a series of mid-level attacks using explosives against soft targets such as malls, stadiums and other gathering places. Train stations obviously were included. No such attacks were carried out -- in our view, because the United States was so sufficiently agitated that no further actions were needed. Now the United States and Europe have become complacent and the war is no longer going well for the Islamists. They might not be able to carry out an attack like Sept. 11, but they retain the ability to hit much harder than they have in other attacks.

If this is true, it means the United States and its allies have to brace for a series of attacks. If there was no suicide bomber involved, it means Islamist groups no longer are using up their attack cadre. If that is true, the same teams can carry out multiple attacks, which if not on the level of Sept. 11, can be horrific in their own right.

Islamists would have three goals here: first, to demonstrate in the Islamic world they are not finished; second, to drive a wedge between the United States and its allies by generating neutrality movements in countries such as Spain among those who would argue the attacks could have been avoided if alliance had been avoided; and finally, to strike at the United States in such a way as to bring down the president. Islamist credibility would soar if President George W. Bush lost the fall election because he was perceived as unable to protect the United States.

It has never been clear whether the Islamists had the continued ability to carry out complex operations. If this proves to be an Islamist attack, the answer to that question will be clear. We do not know how deep their resources go, but there is no reason to believe the violence will be limited to Spain.

That means we need to dust off the scenarios on smaller attacks against the United States. It also means we ought to think a lot about "black winds of death." It could just be psychological warfare. That doesn't mean it isn't a threat.

[johnnymk]

I believe my figures are correct:

This happened March 11 or 912 days since 911; however, because of the time difference between NYC and Madrid, there are 911 days.

[whitak24]

hey merlin, thanks for those articles. you have good information sources -- thanks for sharing them with us here. stuff that is well beyond what the morons writing for usa today can come up with...

[ShawnLee]

Originally posted by johnnymk
I believe my figures are correct:

This happened March 11 or 912 days since 911; however, because of the time difference between NYC and Madrid, there are 911 days.

This may be true, but I think it's about as prescient as all the people who added the flight numbers of the planes that crashed, and came out with 11, 12, 13, 14.

[johnnymk]

Originally posted by ShawnLee105


This may be true, but I think it's about as prescient as all the people who added the flight numbers of the planes that crashed, and came out with 11, 12, 13, 14.

True, but it's interesting ammo for conspiracy theorists :P

Considering the track record of the CIA, it's just as logical to examine this possibilty as anything that they come up with.

[sbp]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/03/13/wbusy213.xml

New forensic evidence on the bombings has raised an uncomfortable question for Spaniards. Is Osama bin Laden dreaming of exacting revenge for the loss of Al-Andalus, the ancient Moorish kingdom in Iberia?

A group close to bin Laden's al-Qa'eda network, the Brigade of Abu Hafs al-Masri, sent a message to a London-based Arabic newspaper explaining the reasons for attacking Spain.

"This is part of settling old accounts with Spain, the crusader and America's ally in its war against Islam," the statement said.

While the authentiticy of the message is open to doubt, there is no question that it reflects the thinking of Islamists, who hold that any land which has once been part of the Muslim community should forever remain under Muslim rule.