Butch

http://blog.sportscolumn.com/story/2...Kentucky_Derby

How not to bet the Kentucky Derby

We love betting the trifecta. For a buck or two, you can win hundreds if not thousands of dollars on a race. Hell, sometimes we'll even go crazy and go with the trifecta box. However, we also know enough about statistics to know that you can't bet every single permutation in a race and expect to come out on top.

But that's exactly what a man in Rochester, NY did. On the day of the Kentucky Derby, a man walked into an OTB and asked how much it would cost to buy every possible trifecta combination. And now we break for a quick math lesson--

If you have 20 horses in the field, the possible outcomes for the first three horses would be 20! / (20-3)! = 6,840. Likewise, a superfecta (first 4 horses) would be 116,280. And now back to your regularly scheduled programming--

The man was told the answer and came back to place the wagers. It cost him a total of $13,680 for his $2 trifectas and he wound up winning... wait for it... wait for it... $440. If you're gonna make a bet like this, you better know what you're getting yourself into. And since the payout odds are terrible on favorites, you should just eliminate those trifecta combinations. But alas, the man had more cash than math skills so now he's $13,240 poorer for his trouble.

This story would only be better if he does the exact same thing in the Preakness.

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I used to be into sadism, necrophilia and beastiality, but then I realized I was just beating a dead horse

johnnymk

A man I know who admits he is a hopeless gambler told me to NEVER believe anyone that gambles a lot that their wins outweigh their losses. I don't know if he's correct, but I would bet he is.

Houdini

I've never understood how "professional gamblers" stay ahead. Unless you're a blackjack wiz and can count cards without any devices on the fly from a 6 deck shoe, you're kinda screwed. And even then, playing a perfect game, you can probably stay in the game for hours or days, but the odds are still against you. Poker, however, is a little different.

But betting that kind of money without even contemplating the statistics...wow. Guy is an idiot.

oblongmelon

I bet on a superfecta and missed on the 4th horse...
I did hit the trifecta though. Didn't win as much as I did last year though.

RoniMan

what's a trifecta?

eSDee

One of my friends told me that a guy he knows is a gambling addict. He was at the tables recently and my friend asked him how he was doing. He told my friend "if I break even I'll never bet again". Sounds like a very difficult addiction to overcome.

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~~~~~~~~~~~~
3 days ~ Willie Nelson

3 days I dread to see arrive
3 days I hate to be alive
3 days filled with tears and sorrow
yesterday today and tomorrow

Prngr44

Top 3 horses in order.

MrGreg

I wonder how many of the possible winning combinations actually would have paid more than the $13,680 it cost him to buy all the tickets?

I remember hearing once about an investment group in Australia, I think, that bought every possible lottery ticket once when the payout was larger than the # of permutations. The risk being that you would have to split the prize with someone who got lucky.

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-The nerd formerly known as vectorcalculus

Jeffbx

Some guy tried to do that in the MI lottery a number of years ago, but they wouldn't let him - they told him there wasn't enough time to print out the 40+ million tickets before the drawing.

InfiniteNothing

What's a preakness? Rymes with weakness. Who makes up these crazy words.

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As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals.

Markel

That's stupid - they could print one ticket that says "WINNER!!!" and charge him $40+ million for it.

__________________
stay low... keep moving...

Houdini

Not a bad idea.

Napoleon54

It is another big race. The three biggest races are the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness, and the Belmont Stakes.

Regarding gambling in general: casinos and bookies and the whole industry exists to make money. It wouldn't exist if their customers routinely came out ahead. The odds are always in the house's favor and are formulated to ensure that they'll always come out ahead.

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There is all the difference in the world between treating people equally and attempting to make them equal. - Friedrich Hayek

Up N Here

trifecta


Main Entry: tri·fec·ta
Pronunciation: trI-'fek-t&, 'trI-"
Function: noun
Etymology: tri- + perfecta
1 : a variation of the perfecta in which a bettor wins by selecting the first three finishers of a race in the correct order of finish
2 : TRIPLE 1b <achieved a show-business trifecta : a platinum record, hit TV series, and an Oscar>