46% of Americans believe the US in a recession

VTGreg · 10-18-2007, 10:41 AM

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...-in-recession/

Quote:

October 18, 2007
Poll: Nearly half think U.S. in recession

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Nearly half of Americans feel the U.S. economy is in a recession, marked by a significant decline in economic activity, according to a survey released Thursday.

The poll by the CNN-Opinion Research Corporation found that while 46 percent of Americans hold that belief, 51 percent don't.

Black citizens were more pessimistic than whites, findings show.

Sixty-nine percent of black Americans feel the United States is in a recession, while only 42 percent of white Americans feel the same way.

The National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP (Gross Domestic Product), real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales."

The GDP measures the economy's output. It represents the total market value of all goods and services produced in the United States during a specified period.

According to the bureau, "a recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity, and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades."

The recession findings may be having an impact on President Bush's approval rating.

The CNN-ORC poll finds Mr. Bush's approval rating remains steady at 36 percent, but his approval rating among black Americans is just 15 percent.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland says "a majority of whites also disapprove of Bush, although four in 10 have a favorable view of his administration. The president's approval rating has been stuck at 36 percent since late summer."

The sampling error for the survey is plus or minus 3 percentage points for all but the black vs. white breakdowns, which have a sampling error of 5.5 percentage points.

– CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

You should check out the link and view the responses to the "article". It is somewhat sad that a large portion of the American public is uninformed enough that they beleive that our country is in a recession.

Daedalus · 10-18-2007, 11:14 AM

We could be in one. A recession can only be seen in the rearview mirror, after all the data gets tallied and revised. Consumer spending is over 70% of the GDP value; if 46% of the population thinks we're in a headwind, then they may tighten their belts. Also, residential investment is typically over 4% of GDP. Given the malaise in that sector it's not unfathomable that housing alone could knock a percent or two off the total GDP figure.

LPMiller · 10-18-2007, 11:53 AM

I'm more of a mind that we never really left the last one. The economy never really buffed up as much as it should have after that.

johnnymk · 10-18-2007, 01:36 PM

I guess a recession will be called a recession when the all-knowing Fed calls it by it's name.

Thesifer · 10-18-2007, 01:45 PM

"Economic Downturn" "Economic Slowdown"

Although, my stocks are doing great.

Daedalus · 10-18-2007, 04:27 PM

The difference in definitions are subtle, but distinguishable. A downturn or a slowdown is a decrease of GDP growth rate. If GDP grew at a +3% annual rate in August, but grew at a +2% annual rate in Septemper, that would be a slowdown. A recession's definition is of negative growth rate--contraction--for a set period. I think the generally accepted period is 2 sequential quarters.

Net exports are increasing due to the weak dollar, and this should help offset any drops in other GDP components. If you live in a northern state and are looking to sell a desireable car, advertise in Canada. Importing's not difficult, and the price arbitrage opportunities are very attractive. A model I'm familiar with sells for around $30k where I'm at, and anywhere from $35-50k in Canada.

Houdini · 10-19-2007, 11:15 PM

Interesting, but rather pointless. The economic status of the country cannot be determined by polling people asking how they THINK the country is doing. Sure, you can ask about their earnings and their opinions of their earnings, but I knew plenty of people who weren't swimming in hundred-dollar bills during the dot-com boom. Yes, stocks slumped a little today, but they've been climbing daily for months.

Half the country probably cannot find England on a map. Does that mean it doesn't exist?

zippyjuan · 10-19-2007, 11:31 PM

It can become a self- fufilling prophecy. If people think the economy is bad, they will spend less money on things and that will slow the economy down.

Maarchk · 10-22-2007, 12:50 PM

Oh man, if the world existed on belief, that would be crazy... But i agree that we can believe we have problems and make things worse. i don't think that will happen though. i think we are slowing, and it makes people worried because they are used to good growth on a regular basis. I think it wouldn't hurt if we slowed down and worked to be more stable then just trying to create bubbles and wondering why they pop.

zippyjuan · 10-22-2007, 01:42 PM

Bubbles come from mass psychology. As something starts to get more popular then more people start putting more money into it and this causes the value of it to move higher faster and this higher return draws even more people in. A plateau is a hard way to stop it once it achieves a certain level so it continues until it "pops" and can no longer be sustained and starts to settle down to a more reasonable level. But with everybody bailing out, it will probably go below this "reasonable" level before re-establishing its more natural one.

Newsweek had a recent article saying that people are cutting back on their spending which means that the economy will continue to slow.

InfiniteNothing · 10-22-2007, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Houdini

Half the country probably cannot find England on a map. Does that mean it doesn't exist?

Sovereignty is only... ha just kidding

10-18-2007, 11:53 AM	#3
LPMiller Chief News Editor & Master of His Domain Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Minnesota Posts: 8,161	I'm more of a mind that we never really left the last one. The economy never really buffed up as much as it should have after that. __________________ lpmiller Chief News Editor Nobel Prize Nominee Reverend in the Universal Life Church Once Shot A Man For Snoring Too Loud Way Too Lazy To Change His Signature "The strength to change what I can, the inability to accept what I can't, and the incapacity to tell the difference." - Calvin and Hobbes

10-18-2007, 01:45 PM	#5
Thesifer Vice Admiral Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Oklahoma Posts: 4,338	"Economic Downturn" "Economic Slowdown" Although, my stocks are doing great. __________________

10-19-2007, 11:31 PM	#8
zippyjuan Picture of the Day Guru Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Sunny San Diego Posts: 8,756	It can become a self- fufilling prophecy. If people think the economy is bad, they will spend less money on things and that will slow the economy down. __________________ I add new pictures to my photo gallery pretty regularly. You can see them here if you are interested: http://www.pbase.com/jeffryz

10-22-2007, 12:50 PM	#9
Maarchk Rear Admiral Upper Half Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: Where the east meets the west. Posts: 3,066	Oh man, if the world existed on belief, that would be crazy... But i agree that we can believe we have problems and make things worse. i don't think that will happen though. i think we are slowing, and it makes people worried because they are used to good growth on a regular basis. I think it wouldn't hurt if we slowed down and worked to be more stable then just trying to create bubbles and wondering why they pop. __________________ "The girl is crafty like ice is cold." "I left my heart in san francisco... And my liver at Moe's Tavern." A real friend is one who listens to you as much as they talk to you.

10-22-2007, 01:42 PM	#10
zippyjuan Picture of the Day Guru Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Sunny San Diego Posts: 8,756	Bubbles come from mass psychology. As something starts to get more popular then more people start putting more money into it and this causes the value of it to move higher faster and this higher return draws even more people in. A plateau is a hard way to stop it once it achieves a certain level so it continues until it "pops" and can no longer be sustained and starts to settle down to a more reasonable level. But with everybody bailing out, it will probably go below this "reasonable" level before re-establishing its more natural one. Newsweek had a recent article saying that people are cutting back on their spending which means that the economy will continue to slow. Last edited by zippyjuan : 10-22-2007 at 01:47 PM.

10-18-2007, 11:14 AM	#2
Daedalus Lieutenant Commander Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 824	We could be in one. A recession can only be seen in the rearview mirror, after all the data gets tallied and revised. Consumer spending is over 70% of the GDP value; if 46% of the population thinks we're in a headwind, then they may tighten their belts. Also, residential investment is typically over 4% of GDP. Given the malaise in that sector it's not unfathomable that housing alone could knock a percent or two off the total GDP figure.

10-18-2007, 01:36 PM	#4
johnnymk Chief of Naval Operations Join Date: May 2000 Location: LEVITTOWN< PA> USA Posts: 13,621	I guess a recession will be called a recession when the all-knowing Fed calls it by it's name.

10-18-2007, 04:27 PM	#6
Daedalus Lieutenant Commander Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 824	The difference in definitions are subtle, but distinguishable. A downturn or a slowdown is a decrease of GDP growth rate. If GDP grew at a +3% annual rate in August, but grew at a +2% annual rate in Septemper, that would be a slowdown. A recession's definition is of negative growth rate--contraction--for a set period. I think the generally accepted period is 2 sequential quarters. Net exports are increasing due to the weak dollar, and this should help offset any drops in other GDP components. If you live in a northern state and are looking to sell a desireable car, advertise in Canada. Importing's not difficult, and the price arbitrage opportunities are very attractive. A model I'm familiar with sells for around $30k where I'm at, and anywhere from $35-50k in Canada.

10-19-2007, 11:15 PM	#7
Houdini Admiral Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: New Orleans Posts: 5,054	Interesting, but rather pointless. The economic status of the country cannot be determined by polling people asking how they THINK the country is doing. Sure, you can ask about their earnings and their opinions of their earnings, but I knew plenty of people who weren't swimming in hundred-dollar bills during the dot-com boom. Yes, stocks slumped a little today, but they've been climbing daily for months. Half the country probably cannot find England on a map. Does that mean it doesn't exist?

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