Cubsfan

Saw this article on www.thestreet.com today (I don't know their model, it may only be available for a certain amount of time) http://www.thestreet.com/funds/jubak/10132387.html

Basically 10 stocks that didn't do well in 2003, but he thinks should pick up in 2004. I don't agree with Merck, however. With something like 12 states considering group-purchasing drugs from Canada, I don't think the pharmaceutical companies have a great outlook.

ray

Of the companies he listed, I am familiar with a few:

Boeing: This past year (and late last year), Boeing began liquidating some of their inventory, machinery and shut down a few larger warehouses. I worked for the company that Liquidated/Auctioned off their heavy machinery. Why were they doing this? Cut costs and hike up their bottom line. They were basically restructuring to return to higher profitability. Recently, I recall some sudden management changeovers and I see that as a caution to investors. Perhaps the new management teams can turn Boeing around in 2004, but I wouldn't put all your hopes in the company in the short term (less than 1 year). Maybe 2005 or 2006 Boeing will return to their peak.

Disney: With Disney's two blockbuster movies this year (Finding Nemo and Pirates of the Carribean), many industry players have been predicting that Disney will receive a lot of attention heading into the new year. There is a downside to such outlook though. Moviegoers and industry critics will be expecting films to become huge successes like Nemo (over $300M WW B.O and record-setting DVD sales for an animated film) and Pirates (over $300M WW B.O. and record-setting DVD sales for that genre film). Can Disney repeat their performance in the movie market? Pirates 2 is slated for 2005, and Dreamworks will be releasing Shrek 2...What does Disney have in store for us? I haven't heard anything.....From the theme park standpoint, Disney's theme parks in Asia are actually doing well and they are looking to expand. Competition is slow to adopt Disney's worldwide expansion plans and it will be several years before Universal Studios opens a new park in Asia (they are discussing the possibility). Management: A couple weeks ago several of Disney's executives (Roy Disney and Stanley Gold) were "forced out" of the company due to some clause that stipulated that anyone over 62 MUST retire. Such provisions were ignored previously, but with Disney's stock seeing a rollercoaster ride the past couple years it was inevitable. What I hear around the office amongst people who used to work at Disney and still have contact with many people at Disney is that Michael Eisner was one of the main problems with Disney's struggling company. Though he has managed to turn ABC around and return them to profit, that is just a minor asset of theirs compared to their Movie Studio, Disney Channel and of course their theme parks.

I realize that these are not an analysis of their financials and it would definitely be a good idea to research them if you're thinking about investing in the 10 companies in that article. However, you have to take into consideration some of the major changes that have occured in 2003 for the two I discussed (Boeing and Disney). Change is sometimes good, but you still have to be skeptical on their short-term performance.

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djsusm

I don't know if any of you listen to The Motley Fool Radio show, but on their last show (follow the linky to listen online) they talked about 4 stocks that they think will do well in 2k4.

If you don't want to listen, these were:

Time Warner (TWX) - Strong media company with great brand (Harry potter coming out, LOTR past years).

LabCorp (LH) - Medical lab test company. Leader in Gene based testing.

Marvel (MVL) - Spiderman movie coming out.

MidAtlantic Medical Services (MME) - "Dominant provider of HMO servies in the greater DC area" Getting acquied by United Health Care.


Overall, this radio show is fun to listen to, and quite informative - I highly recommend it.