White House retreats on employment forecast

johnnymk · 02-19-2004, 04:32 PM

By Alan Beattie in Washington
Published: February 18 2004

Jobs again took centre stage in the political theatre of the US presidential election on Wednesday when the White House avoided backing its own recent forecast for employment, prompting Democrats to react with scorn.

At a press briefing in Washington, Scott McClellan, White House spokesman, declined to endorse the recent forecast from the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), which predicted that the average level of jobs this year would be 2.6m higher than in 2003.

"The number-crunchers will do their job," he said. "The president's job is to make sure we're creating as robust an environment as possible for job creation."

He quoted president George W. Bush as saying: "I'm not a statistician. I'm not a predictor."

The retreat marks the White House's second economy-related clarification this month. Last week, Greg Mankiw, CEA chairman, remarked that the outsourcing of US jobs overseas was "probably a plus for the economy in the long run".

The comments provoked outrage from both main parties - including Dennis Hastert, the Republican Speaker of the House - and from powerful manufacturing groups.

Mr Mankiw later called job losses due to overseas outsourcing "regrettable".

John Kerry, the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, yesterday poured scorn on the administration for its job forecasts.

"Now George Bush is saying he's going to create 2.6m jobs this year alone - and his advisers are saying, 'What, you didn't actually believe that, did you?'," Mr Kerry said.

In reality, according to White House staff, the forecast - which was based on data available at the beginning of December - predicted job growth of 325,000 a month. That would imply nearly 4m net new jobs over the course of 2004.

Some economists have said that the forecast relied on an unrealistic slowing of productivity growth, to well below its average over the past few years, in order to generate higher job growth for a given rate of economic expansion.

The forecast envisaged productivity slowing to 1.4 per cent this year from an average growth rate of 4.2 per cent last year.

Unless job growth picks up in coming months, as many economists think it will, employment is likely to prove one of the main battlefields in the presidential election in November.

ray · 02-19-2004, 05:54 PM

You know what would be great? If 4M new jobs were added this year. I could see it now. Bush will be re-elected.

wxtwiztidxc · 02-19-2004, 06:25 PM

I need a new job!

brainsmile · 02-19-2004, 11:57 PM

I am not surprised they backed down. What is surprising is the following quote, "you know, I have no professional training of singing..." William Hung

zippyjuan · 02-20-2004, 01:16 AM

US companies have been adding thousands of jobs- overseas. So now the Americans who used to do those jobs are paying less taxes and also spending less money at other businesses that would have spurred economic and jobs growth. In December the US economy produced 1,000 new jobs (yes, one thousand for the entire country). To get 4 million, you would need 333,333 a month. What is good for George Bush's CEO friends is certainly not good for the rest of the country.

pain2010 · 02-20-2004, 03:51 PM

Where are the unemployed i need help!!!

Airencracken · 02-20-2004, 03:53 PM

I could use a second job. I really want to move out...

ray · 02-23-2004, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Airencracken
I could use a second job. I really want to move out...

You know, if my current job didn't keep me at work 60+ hours/week on the weekdays, I would probably go get a job working in a record store at night.

02-19-2004, 04:32 PM	#1
johnnymk Chief of Naval Operations Join Date: May 2000 Location: LEVITTOWN< PA> USA Posts: 12,601	White House retreats on employment forecast By Alan Beattie in Washington Published: February 18 2004 Jobs again took centre stage in the political theatre of the US presidential election on Wednesday when the White House avoided backing its own recent forecast for employment, prompting Democrats to react with scorn. At a press briefing in Washington, Scott McClellan, White House spokesman, declined to endorse the recent forecast from the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), which predicted that the average level of jobs this year would be 2.6m higher than in 2003. "The number-crunchers will do their job," he said. "The president's job is to make sure we're creating as robust an environment as possible for job creation." He quoted president George W. Bush as saying: "I'm not a statistician. I'm not a predictor." The retreat marks the White House's second economy-related clarification this month. Last week, Greg Mankiw, CEA chairman, remarked that the outsourcing of US jobs overseas was "probably a plus for the economy in the long run". The comments provoked outrage from both main parties - including Dennis Hastert, the Republican Speaker of the House - and from powerful manufacturing groups. Mr Mankiw later called job losses due to overseas outsourcing "regrettable". John Kerry, the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, yesterday poured scorn on the administration for its job forecasts. "Now George Bush is saying he's going to create 2.6m jobs this year alone - and his advisers are saying, 'What, you didn't actually believe that, did you?'," Mr Kerry said. In reality, according to White House staff, the forecast - which was based on data available at the beginning of December - predicted job growth of 325,000 a month. That would imply nearly 4m net new jobs over the course of 2004. Some economists have said that the forecast relied on an unrealistic slowing of productivity growth, to well below its average over the past few years, in order to generate higher job growth for a given rate of economic expansion. The forecast envisaged productivity slowing to 1.4 per cent this year from an average growth rate of 4.2 per cent last year. Unless job growth picks up in coming months, as many economists think it will, employment is likely to prove one of the main battlefields in the presidential election in November. __________________ Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it. - Ronald Reagan (1986)

02-19-2004, 05:54 PM	#2
ray lilbigblue Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 6,613	You know what would be great? If 4M new jobs were added this year. I could see it now. Bush will be re-elected. __________________ new uploader My World

02-19-2004, 06:25 PM	#3
wxtwiztidxc Lieutenant Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: SaNdy EgO! Posts: 239	I need a new job! __________________ My bully is Betty

02-19-2004, 11:57 PM	#4
brainsmile Chief of Naval Operations Join Date: Jun 2000 Location: woah... why is welfareloser here with me so early in the morning and more importantly why am I wearing her clothes?!? Posts: 13,445	I am not surprised they backed down. What is surprising is the following quote, "you know, I have no professional training of singing..." William Hung __________________ ********************************** DCM #1 (Founder) "Nobody beats Vitus Gerulaitis 18 times in a row." - Vitus Gerulaitis on beating Jimmy Connors after 17 failed attempts. Last edited by brainsmile : 02-20-2004 at 12:05 AM.

02-20-2004, 01:16 AM	#5
zippyjuan Picture of the Day Guru Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Sunny San Diego Posts: 8,070	US companies have been adding thousands of jobs- overseas. So now the Americans who used to do those jobs are paying less taxes and also spending less money at other businesses that would have spurred economic and jobs growth. In December the US economy produced 1,000 new jobs (yes, one thousand for the entire country). To get 4 million, you would need 333,333 a month. What is good for George Bush's CEO friends is certainly not good for the rest of the country. __________________ I add new pictures to my photo gallery pretty regularly. You can see them here if you are interested: http://www.pbase.com/jeffryz

02-20-2004, 03:51 PM	#6
pain2010 Lieutenant Junior Grade Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: in the dog house. Posts: 129	Where are the unemployed i need help!!!

02-20-2004, 03:53 PM	#7
Airencracken Admiral Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Upland, Ca. Posts: 6,315	I could use a second job. I really want to move out... __________________ "I remember my first orgasm, I just wish someone was there to share it with me..."11-05-2003 05:33 AM - Topane They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety. - Benjamin Franklin Religion is the sigh of the oppressed creature, the heart of a heartless world, & the soul of soulless conditions. It is the opiate of the masses. - Karl Marx Hell is other people - Jean-Paul Sartre

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