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Old 09-13-2007, 01:14 AM   #1
zippyjuan
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Yes, raising gas prices by about 25% probably would get people to drive less and hopefully move around more.
Quote:
It calculated that an increase of $1 per gallon in real gasoline prices would reduce US obesity by 15 per cent after five years.
So let's look at it. Here is a chart of historical gas prices in the US. The more reliable line is the one at the bottom since it is adjusted for inflation. From 1980 to 1986 it heads down nicely. Then it is actually looking pretty flat since 1986 except for a couple wiggles aroung 1990 and again around 2000. Mid 2001 it does take off a bit.
http://www.randomuseless.info/gasprice/gasprice.html


Now compare some obesity figures. I am gettting them from here.

http://www.nutritioncrashcourse.com/...s-US-Chart.jpg
The figures in this chart do not cover every year so we will look at what they do give us. The trend is the important thing.

Looking at this chart, obesity has been rising fairly steadily since at least 1970. Even during the gas price declines of the 1980s. Gas prices leveled out during the 1990's but the obesity rate did not. Since 2001, real prices of gas have doubled (though not reached historic high levels) without any accompaning decrease in obesity.

I will agree that my data here is very limited, but they do seem to show minimal if any corelation between gas prices and obesity.

Quote:
But, to his shock, Mr Courtemanche found that 13 per cent of the rise in obesity between 1979 and 2004 could be attributed to the falling price of petrol.
Thirteen percent may statistically corelate, but that does not mean that the thirteen percent was CAUSED by the change in gas prices. You could probably find a better corelation between who was president at the time and the obesity rates. People were leaner under Kennedy and Carter than under Reagan and Bush. But that is probably due to other societal factors. And yes, you can say they were thinner under Nixon than Clinton.

In 1960- 62, only about 13% of the adult US population was considered obese. 1988- 1994, that was up to 23.3% and by 2000, 30.9%.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0883555.html
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Last edited by zippyjuan : 09-13-2007 at 01:27 AM.
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