Rising gasoline prices could force obese Americans to hit the street

johnnymk · 09-12-2007, 10:37 PM

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/...cle2956424.ece

For overweight Americans relief is on the way, in the shape of ever-higher petrol prices. Getting out the car to drive downtown for a super-sized plate full of fatty fast-food is the highlight of the day for many Americans. The result is a public health crisis with four out of 10 American adults already overweight or heading that way.

After consuming mountains of chips, fried meat and baked goods all washed down with corn-sweetened soft drinks, overweight Americans then worry which best-selling diet book will help them see their toes again. It turns out that higher petrol prices can slim down more than the wallets of the overweight.

The ever-rising cost of filling up their cars is prompting millions of Americans to pack their own lunch and walk to the bus.

The statistics are dramatic: they show that when petrol prices have risen in the US, obesity has shown a corresponding fall of as much as 10 per cent according to a new study, A Silver Lining? The Connection between Gas Prices and Obesity.

The study's author, Charles Courtemanche, from the University of Washington, St Louis, said his inspiration came when he was filling up his car: "I was pumping gas one day, thinking with gas prices so high I may have to take the Metro," he said.

After figuring out that he would get an extra 30 minutes of exercise per day by walking to and from the Metro, he correlated statistics for obesity and petrol prices in America.

American obesity rates began to rise sharply in the early 1980s. Part of this has been blamed on an overworked population demanding convenience foods – prepared, packaged products and restaurant meals that contain more calories than home-cooked meals.

According to Marion Nestle, of New York University, the arrival of the Reagan administration in 1980 brought government subsidies for farmers who grew more food. Fast-food companies reacted by serving larger portions and inventing snacks. The calories available per capita nearly doubled to 3,900 a day and a crisis was born.

But, to his shock, Mr Courtemanche found that 13 per cent of the rise in obesity between 1979 and 2004 could be attributed to the falling price of petrol. "First, if a person uses public transportation, such as subways, buses, trolleys or rail services, the need to move to and from the public transit stops is likely to result in additional walking, again decreasing weight," he said.

"Second, since the opportunity cost of eating out at restaurants rises when the price of gas increases, people may substitute eating out to preparing their own meals at home, which tend to be healthier."

Now petrol prices are on the up again, reaching a record high of $3.22 (£1.60) per gallon in May 2007, and so according to the theory, obesity levels should now be falling. "The recent spike in gas prices may have the 'silver lining' of reducing obesity in the coming years," the study said. It calculated that an increase of $1 per gallon in real gasoline prices would reduce US obesity by 15 per cent after five years. That would save 16,000 lives and $17bn a year, according to the research.

Mr Courtemanche said he had already received hate mail for suggesting that high petrol prices are good for Americans. "One person yelled at me: 'So now I'm supposed to be happy about gas prices!'" he said.

Some 59 million Americans are overweight. Almost 65 per cent are either obese or overweight, 10-30lb over a healthy weight, with greater chances of developing diabetes, heart disease, and some types of cancer. And it is not just adults. Some obese children in the US knock back two or three bottles of cola a day, equivalent to 1,000 calories.

Most US cities do not have good public transport networks, although they are improving. As more people react to the "sticker shock" of paying more than $3 a gallon by opting to walk, take the bus, or even cycle, planners anticipate pressure for better public transport.

renovation · 09-13-2007, 12:15 AM

now we know why we call a increase in the tax on gasoline a fat tax

zippyjuan · 09-13-2007, 01:14 AM

Yes, raising gas prices by about 25% probably would get people to drive less and hopefully move around more.

Quote:

It calculated that an increase of $1 per gallon in real gasoline prices would reduce US obesity by 15 per cent after five years.

So let's look at it. Here is a chart of historical gas prices in the US. The more reliable line is the one at the bottom since it is adjusted for inflation. From 1980 to 1986 it heads down nicely. Then it is actually looking pretty flat since 1986 except for a couple wiggles aroung 1990 and again around 2000. Mid 2001 it does take off a bit.
http://www.randomuseless.info/gasprice/gasprice.html

Now compare some obesity figures. I am gettting them from here.

http://www.nutritioncrashcourse.com/...s-US-Chart.jpg
The figures in this chart do not cover every year so we will look at what they do give us. The trend is the important thing.

Looking at this chart, obesity has been rising fairly steadily since at least 1970. Even during the gas price declines of the 1980s. Gas prices leveled out during the 1990's but the obesity rate did not. Since 2001, real prices of gas have doubled (though not reached historic high levels) without any accompaning decrease in obesity.

I will agree that my data here is very limited, but they do seem to show minimal if any corelation between gas prices and obesity.

Quote:

But, to his shock, Mr Courtemanche found that 13 per cent of the rise in obesity between 1979 and 2004 could be attributed to the falling price of petrol.

Thirteen percent may statistically corelate, but that does not mean that the thirteen percent was CAUSED by the change in gas prices. You could probably find a better corelation between who was president at the time and the obesity rates. People were leaner under Kennedy and Carter than under Reagan and Bush. But that is probably due to other societal factors. And yes, you can say they were thinner under Nixon than Clinton.

In 1960- 62, only about 13% of the adult US population was considered obese. 1988- 1994, that was up to 23.3% and by 2000, 30.9%.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0883555.html

uncledaddy · 09-13-2007, 12:36 AM

So, is this about fuel prices or obesity?

I hope more than just fuel prices will cause obese people to exercise more.

09-12-2007, 10:37 PM	#1
johnnymk Chief of Naval Operations Join Date: May 2000 Location: LEVITTOWN< PA> USA Posts: 13,619	Rising gasoline prices could force obese Americans to hit the street http://news.independent.co.uk/world/...cle2956424.ece For overweight Americans relief is on the way, in the shape of ever-higher petrol prices. Getting out the car to drive downtown for a super-sized plate full of fatty fast-food is the highlight of the day for many Americans. The result is a public health crisis with four out of 10 American adults already overweight or heading that way. After consuming mountains of chips, fried meat and baked goods all washed down with corn-sweetened soft drinks, overweight Americans then worry which best-selling diet book will help them see their toes again. It turns out that higher petrol prices can slim down more than the wallets of the overweight. The ever-rising cost of filling up their cars is prompting millions of Americans to pack their own lunch and walk to the bus. The statistics are dramatic: they show that when petrol prices have risen in the US, obesity has shown a corresponding fall of as much as 10 per cent according to a new study, A Silver Lining? The Connection between Gas Prices and Obesity. The study's author, Charles Courtemanche, from the University of Washington, St Louis, said his inspiration came when he was filling up his car: "I was pumping gas one day, thinking with gas prices so high I may have to take the Metro," he said. After figuring out that he would get an extra 30 minutes of exercise per day by walking to and from the Metro, he correlated statistics for obesity and petrol prices in America. American obesity rates began to rise sharply in the early 1980s. Part of this has been blamed on an overworked population demanding convenience foods – prepared, packaged products and restaurant meals that contain more calories than home-cooked meals. According to Marion Nestle, of New York University, the arrival of the Reagan administration in 1980 brought government subsidies for farmers who grew more food. Fast-food companies reacted by serving larger portions and inventing snacks. The calories available per capita nearly doubled to 3,900 a day and a crisis was born. But, to his shock, Mr Courtemanche found that 13 per cent of the rise in obesity between 1979 and 2004 could be attributed to the falling price of petrol. "First, if a person uses public transportation, such as subways, buses, trolleys or rail services, the need to move to and from the public transit stops is likely to result in additional walking, again decreasing weight," he said. "Second, since the opportunity cost of eating out at restaurants rises when the price of gas increases, people may substitute eating out to preparing their own meals at home, which tend to be healthier." Now petrol prices are on the up again, reaching a record high of $3.22 (£1.60) per gallon in May 2007, and so according to the theory, obesity levels should now be falling. "The recent spike in gas prices may have the 'silver lining' of reducing obesity in the coming years," the study said. It calculated that an increase of $1 per gallon in real gasoline prices would reduce US obesity by 15 per cent after five years. That would save 16,000 lives and $17bn a year, according to the research. Mr Courtemanche said he had already received hate mail for suggesting that high petrol prices are good for Americans. "One person yelled at me: 'So now I'm supposed to be happy about gas prices!'" he said. Some 59 million Americans are overweight. Almost 65 per cent are either obese or overweight, 10-30lb over a healthy weight, with greater chances of developing diabetes, heart disease, and some types of cancer. And it is not just adults. Some obese children in the US knock back two or three bottles of cola a day, equivalent to 1,000 calories. Most US cities do not have good public transport networks, although they are improving. As more people react to the "sticker shock" of paying more than $3 a gallon by opting to walk, take the bus, or even cycle, planners anticipate pressure for better public transport.

09-13-2007, 12:15 AM	#2
renovation Vice Admiral Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: by a lake in michigan Posts: 4,271	now we know why we call a increase in the tax on gasoline a fat tax __________________ be careful of what you wish for . you may get a ton of junk e-mail ! smile or f-off

09-13-2007, 12:36 AM	#4
uncledaddy Rear Admiral Lower Half Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: With Me, Myself, and I...wondering why we can't get along! Posts: 2,583	So, is this about fuel prices or obesity? I hope more than just fuel prices will cause obese people to exercise more. __________________

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