When is the planet going to run out of oil? Derrick
Knoxville, Tennessee Dear Derrick: Oil is indeed
finite. The
Society of Petroleum Engineers estimates remaining official reserves represent 44.6 more years of oil. But there are many factors, including continual increases in demand and the possibility of new discoveries, that make this merely an educated guess. In any event, many who follow this issue agree the question is not entirely relevant. That's because long before that final drop is burned, a more subtle watershed will occur. The energy industry calls this "
peak oil," the time when the production capacity of suppliers is completely maxed out. Led by rapidly industrializing China, global oil consumption has been
increasing over two percent annually. In order for prices to remain relatively stable, supply must keep up. Therefore, when production finally peaks, with only
decreases in supply to follow... well, you can do the math. At the very least the
end of cheap oil will mean fewer gas guzzlers on the road. A more
cataclysmic scenario projects power shortages, economic and political instability, and war.
But when will "peak oil" occur? Estimates
range from the
ultra-optimistic (no sooner than 2035) to the
bleak (it's imminent or already here). The U.S. Department of Energy, not exactly going out on a limb,
estimates world oil production to top out anytime from 2021 to 2112. One factor driving the difference in predictions: Many claim oil nations routinely
inflate the amount of their
official reserves. So there could actually be considerably less left in the world's tank than is on the books.
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